Rising Tide

As Populists Rise in Europe, what hope can the UK give to the EU?

The 2024 European Parliament election polls suggest a rising tide of populism across the EU, with profound implications for European Union policies and integration.

Does this mean that the EU has fallen, and Remainers should abandon the dream of returning? No: it means it’s more important than ever to hold on to the values the EU aspires to.

We are moving away from populist nationalism in the UK; the Tories & SNP are projected to face significant lossess on July 4th: if we are past peak populism perhaps we are just ahead of the curve, and can be a pathfinder for the EU to do the same.

Populist Nationalism eventually, inevitably, fails to deliver.

Decline of Nationalist Populism in the UK

The SNP is facing a substantial reduction in its parliamentary representation, projected to lose up to 28 seats, leaving them with only 15 MPs. This is down to a variety of internal challenges, the resurgence of Labour in Scotland, and a regression to normalcy where the economy, education, health and housing are once again becoming more important than the fairytale of independence.

The Conservative Party is anticipated to experience significant losses in the upcoming general election, reflecting widespread public dissatisfaction with their governance, particularly again regarding critical issues such as healthcare, education, and policing.

Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Europe

The European political landscape is witnessing a surge in right-wing populism. The 2024 European Parliament elections are expected to see populist radical right parties leading in nine EU member states, including France, Italy, and Poland. The Identity and Democracy (ID) group is poised to become the third-largest faction with around 98 seats, significantly reshaping the balance of power in the Parliament.

Implications for EU Policies and Integration

The potential formation of a right-wing coalition comprising Christian democrats, conservatives, and far-right MEPs could have significant ramifications for the EU’s policy-making capabilities. Such a coalition would obstruct progressive initiatives, particularly those related to climate action under the European Green Deal and would weaken measures upholding democratic norms and the rule of law. The economic policies, technology regulations, and foreign policy stances, such as EU enlargement, could face substantial hurdles from this right-leaning majority, and have implications for the current European land war in Ukraine.

Institutional Impact

The new European Parliament will be responsible for electing the next European Commission President. Ursula von der Leyen of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) is expected to continue if her group remains the largest. However, her potential increased cooperation with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group could steer policies further to the right.

Tie your colours to the mast.

The UK’s experience illustrates that populism can be countered through resilient democratic institutions and a steadfast commitment to progressive values. Despite the rise of populism in Europe, it is crucial for Remainers to uphold democratic values and resist extreme ideologies. By focusing on these principles, the UK can support efforts to help the EU move past the peak of populism without succumbing to authoritarianism or fascism.

Proportional representation is a better system than FPTP, but as we know in Scotland, it is far from perfect at countering extremism.

The lights have not yet gone out in Europe, but they are flickering. We can not be complacent, but we have turned the tide against nationalism in Scotland and the rest of the UK – Europe can follow.

The rising tide will go out again.