The Good Friday Agreement is not Justification for the SNP’s Unilateral De Facto Referendum demands
The pub in the film the long good Friday is called “The ‘Lion and Unicorn’ – representing the standards of England and Scotland as united on the banner of James VI of Scotland when he became James I of England and joined the two countries under his monarchy.
In the swirling maelstrom of UK politics, Scottish Nationalists sometimes brandish the Good Friday Agreement’s provisions for a border poll as a precedent for their right to unilaterally call a referendum on Scottish independence, and much like the pub in the film, blow the unicorn and lion apart, However, much like Harold: Bob Hoskins’ character in the classic British film ‘The Long Good Friday’, they may find that their ambitious plans lead to unexpected and unwelcome consequences.
Setting aside the nationalist cognitive dissonance in thinking one island should have its border removed, while demanding partition on the island next door, there are many differences in Northern Ireland’s border poll protection’s of a hard-won peace and the disruptive demands of SNP grievance.
Constitutional Reservations
The constitution is reserved to Westminster.
The Good Friday Agreement, signed in 1998, provides for a border poll in Northern Ireland but, crucially, the power to call the poll rests with the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, currently The Rt Hon Chris Heaton-Harris MP, a Westminster government position.
This is a far cry from the SNP’s demands that Holyrood should have the right to unilaterally call a referendum. The power to call a border poll in Northern Ireland is not devolved; the constitution remains firmly in the hands of Westminster; if the GFA sets a precedent it’s not for Holyrood to have the power to break up the UK
Picking the electorate
I’ve written before, in my calls for a British Clarity act, about different voting options and electorates. The Westminster Secretary of State would also decide the electorate for an Ulster border poll. This is a significant power, with the potential to influence the outcome.
Some argue for or against 16 to 18 year olds being allowed to vote; as in the Scottish independence referendum. This decision, however, would be made by a Westminster politician, not a devolved administration, and both Westminster votes, and votes for the Stormont assembly have a minimum voting age of 18.
Setting the question
The question posed in any border poll would be set and tested by the Electoral Commission, an independent body; not by the devolved Northern Irish Assembly or any local political party.
This further undermines the SNP’s argument for a unilateral right to call and set the terms of a referendum; or even to have no question at all but simply some vague sort of approval in a ‘de facto’ referendum – the exact criteria of which has never been nailed down. Is it 50%+1 of MPs or 50%+1 of the vote, or 50%+1 of registered voters?
What triggers a poll?
There is no agreed trigger for a border poll. While the Secretary of State has a duty to call one if they feel it appears likely that a majority would favour a united Ireland, there is no clear guidance on how this judgement should be made. This is a far cry from the SNP’s assertion that a simple majority in the Scottish Parliament should be sufficient to trigger a referendum, or even Nicola Sturgeon era assessment, later dropped, that independence should be polling at around 60% for a year before nationalists have”won the right” to ask a second time.
Bare Majority
The Good Friday Agreement does stipulate a simple majority vote (50% + 1) in a Northern Ireland poll, as the 2014 independence vote, and the later Brexit vote, were. This has been a point of contention.
The Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, questioned the wisdom of Irish unity founded on such a narrow margin. This is a stark contrast to the SNP’s insistence on a simple majority as the threshold for Scottish independence.
In most democracies there are safeguards on constitutional change, such as confirmatory votes or supermajority requirements. We are seeing now how the bare majority Brexit vote has led to first division and now the majority of voters bring against Brexit.
Seven year itch
The GFA specifies a minimum seven-year interval between polls. However, this does not mean that there could simply be a rerun every seven years. Indeed as we know from Quebec that level of uncertainty would be a deterrence to investment. Either way, The Secretary of State must still judge that a majority would likely favour a united Ireland before calling a poll. This is a far cry from Scottish nationalists plan for wanting every election, Holyrood or Westminster, to be a ‘de facto’ referendum until they get one over the line.
The Final Act
In conclusion, the Good Friday Agreement is a complex and delicately balanced arrangement, designed to protect a hard won peace in a unique and sensitive political situation. It is not a carte blanche for regions to unilaterally secede from the UK. The SNP’s attempt to use it as a precedent for their ambitions for Scottish independence is misguided, illogical and legally unsound.
If Humza Yousaf, as seems likely, pursues Nicola Sturgeon’s failed policy, either from lack of imagination or in lack of confidence he can win elections on delivering devolved policies, we may yet see him in the back of a taxi, his best laid plans derailed by underestimating the complexities, Nuances and implications of Irish politics.
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